How Much Do Rejected Loads REALLY Cost Shippers?
FreightWaves Sonar released three new truckload indices showing contract rates resetting 13.11% above prior rates — the highest since early 2022 — while third-plus tender loads cost shippers nearly 20% more than first-tender acceptance. First-tender acceptance has dropped to 89.29% from 93% last November, meaning more freight is cascading to expensive backup carriers.
Accelerating freight cost inflation compounds existing margin compression from platform fee increases and ad cost growth, squeezing sellers on both the inbound and retail price sides simultaneously.
Marketplace sellers shipping via 3PLs or managing their own freight will see landed cost increases baked into Q1 contract renewals, directly compressing margins on already-thin SKUs. Audit your 3PL and carrier contracts now — any rate locked before mid-2025 is likely due for a 13%+ reset that your pricing hasn't accounted for.
Operational Impact
This story may require teams to revisit workflows, monitoring, or platform assumptions.
Bottom Line
Freight contract rates up 13% — thin-margin SKUs are about to go underwater.
Source Lens
Industry Context
Useful background context, but lower-priority than direct platform, community, or operator intelligence.
Impact Level
medium
Freight contract rates up 13% — thin-margin SKUs are about to go underwater.
Key Stat / Trigger
New freight contracts resetting 13.11% above prior rates — highest since early 2022
Focus on the operational implication, not just the headline.
Full Coverage
#fwtv_jpYupE5QUTw. fwtv-panel{border:1px solid #d0d0d0;padding:18px;border-radius:6px;line-height:1. 6}#fwtv_jpYupE5QUTw. fwtv-panel p{margin:0 0 12px}#fwtv_jpYupE5QUTw. fwtv-note{font-style:italic;color:#666;margin-top:16px;padding-top:12px;border-top:1px solid #e0e0e0}Discover how new Sonar indices are revolutionizing freight cost transparency.
Shippers can now accurately track the real premiums paid for rejected loads and understand escalating contract rates. This essential data helps you optimize routing guides and budget for backup coverage, turning estimates into actionable insights.
FreightWaves’ Sonar on Thursday released three truckload dataset groups that put hard numbers on routing guide failures, giving shippers a market benchmark for what backup coverage actually costs.
The indices — Routing Guide Premiums, Routing Guide Acceptance Share, and Contract Rate Change Direction — update daily on a seven-day rolling average and measure shipper-to-provider costs, not carrier operating costs or broker margins. The Routing Guide Premiums index (RGP2. USA and RGP3.
USA) shows the median percent change in all-in costs when a load is accepted on the second or third-plus tender rather than the first. The second tender is currently running at a 9. 25% premium versus a 12-month average of 8. 77%, while the third-plus tender sits at 19. 84% — roughly double the second-tender cost.
Both figures are well above last November, when second-tender premiums were near 4% as capacity was just beginning to tighten. Seasonal data shows premiums on third-plus tenders topped 35% during late December, early February, and June into early July.
The Routing Guide Acceptance Share index (RGAS1, 2, and 3 USA) tracks the share of accepted loads at each tender position from first through fifth-and-beyond. First-tender acceptance currently stands at 89. 29%, below the 12-month average of 89. 54% and well off the roughly 93% acceptance rate recorded last November. The second position accounts for 6.
67% of accepted loads and third-plus for 4. 16%, reflecting more freight falling to backup providers as the market has tightened over the past year. “If your first tender acceptance is slipping faster than the national number, then there’s a problem in your routing guide, not just with the market,” said Julie Van de Kamp.
The third index, Contract Rate Change Direction (CRCD. USA), is the one Van de Kamp called most significant. It measures the average percent change between new and previous contract base rates, filtering out any rate that was not stable for at least 90 days to eliminate short-term noise. The index currently reads 13.
11%, meaning new contracts are resetting roughly 13% above the rates they replaced — up from approximately 4% last November and above the 12-month average of 8. 52%. The reading peaked above 16% in early October before easing slightly.
To place that figure in historical context, Van de Kamp noted that at the same point in 2025, the comparable reading was about 4%; in 2024 it ranged between 3% and 6%; and in 2023 contract rates were negative, meaning costs were declining as lanes reset. The current 13.
11% reading is the highest since early 2022 and is nearly four times the five-year average of 3. 47%. Contract resets bottomed near negative 9% in spring 2023, turned positive in mid-2024, and accelerated sharply from mid-2026 onward.
Van de Kamp framed the combined picture this way: routing guides are holding near historical averages, but more freight is cascading to backup providers than a year ago; when it does, shippers pay roughly 10% more at the second tender and 20% more at the third-plus tender; and new contracts are repricing at the strongest rate since 2022.
The datasets are live now in Sonar’s full enterprise UI. Third-plus tender loads now cost shippers nearly 20% more than first-tender acceptance, with seasonal spikes topping 35% earlier this year. First-tender acceptance has dropped to 89. 29% from roughly 93% last November, pushing more freight to higher-cost backup providers.
New contracts are resetting 13. 11% above prior rates — the highest contract inflation since early 2022 and nearly four times the five-year average of 3. 47%. This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above. The post How Much Do Rejected Loads REALLY Cost Shippers?
appeared first on FreightWaves.
Check your 3PL or carrier contract renewal date — if it resets in the next 90 days, model a 13% freight cost increase against your current Amazon/Walmart margin stack before the new rate hits.
Audit SKU-level landed costs in your replenishment tool or P&L tracker now; any product with sub-15% margin is at risk of going negative if shipping costs reset at current market rates.
Original Source
This briefing is based on reporting from Freightwaves. Use the original post for full primary-source context.
Style
Audience