Nearly 30% of holiday budgets expected to be spent by the end of October

New Economic Realities // October 19, 2026 Nearly 30% of holiday budgets expected to be spent by the end of October By Anna Hensel Ivy Liu Below is the latest edition of Modern Retail’s Supply Chain Weekly newsletter, which goes out on Mondays at 10 a. m.

ET, and dives into all things logistics and supply chain during a tumultuous time for the retail industry. To receive this weekly in your inbox, click here. A new report from Deloitte highlights how drastically holiday shopping patterns have changed in recent years.

According to the consulting firm’s annual holiday shopping survey, 22% of respondents plan to start their holiday shopping earlier than last year, and 28% of shoppers’ budgets are expected to be exhausted by the end of October — the highest level reported in six years.

Beyond starting earlier, shoppers are also doing more of their shopping outside of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Forty-two percent of respondents say they plan to participate in October sales events, an 18% increase over the past three years, and 1 in 4 shoppers say they even bought some holiday gifts during June promotional events.

Put together, it underscores that the holiday season is no longer a sprint — it’s a marathon. Even if consumers are starting their holiday shopping earlier, many of them are staying engaged all season long.

It’s even more crucial than that from a supply chain perspective; retailers have enough inventory to last from October to December — and they don’t wait to put their best sellers on shelves for Black Friday.

“In general, shoppers are becoming much savvier and thoughtful about how they maximize their dollars,” Brian McCarthy, a principal in Deloitte’s strategy and analytics practice, said in a phone interview. Deloitte surveyed 4,000 consumers in the U. S. between Aug. 26 and Sept. 10.

Consumers are doing more research, McCarthy said, and they know there are more promotional events they can take advantage of. In turn, “people are able to plan for [these sales] and lean into those moments with more intention.” Deloitte has zeroed in on one type of shopper in particular that it calls the “holiday value seeker.”

Thirty-eight percent of respondents fall into this category. Deloitte classified a respondent as a “holiday value seeker” if they agreed that they adopt at least five money-saving behaviors, like waiting for deals or switching brands when prices rise. Being a value seeker “does not mean that these shoppers are not looking to spend,” McCarthy said.

In fact, holiday value seekers planned to spend 12% more this holiday season compared to non-value seekers. They just do more research and are willing to make more trade-offs to get what they want and stretch their dollars further.

“They know how to use their loyalty programs and rewards, and they are willing to shift between national brand and private label to get more value,” McCarthy said.

Sixty-five percent of these value seekers are already holiday shopping during October, but interestingly, Deloitte said, their engagement is also more likely to hold through the full Thanksgiving promotional week. In other words, these shoppers are starting earlier, but they are more likely to stretch their spending across the full holiday season.

“I still think there is, to a degree, a finite amount of spend that will happen during the holiday season,” McCarthy said. So, does that mean retailers now need to have their full holiday assortment on shelves starting the first week of October? Not necessarily, McCarthy said.

There are certain big-ticket purchases — like televisions — that consumers may be more willing to pull the trigger on earlier if, say, they get a good deal in October. It’s also something they are likely only to buy one of during the holiday season, so retailers “probably want to win that one early.”

But for other categories like apparel or toys, shoppers are more willing to make decisions later, outside of exclusive items, McCarthy said.

One thing that is certain about these value seekers is that they do a lot of research — they want the full picture on what kind of discount they are getting, how fast the shipping is, and whether or not they can use loyalty points before deciding whether or not to make a purchase, McCarthy said.

In turn, not only do retailers need to make sure their product is in the right places, but they also have to make sure that the value proposition is “communicated in the right places,” McCarthy said. “Retailers, in general, should try to make this concept of value easy to see,” he added.

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