2026 State of Logistics Report: Volatility is the new normal

Supply chain volatility has moved from a temporary disruption to a permanent feature of the operating environment, according to the 2026 State of Logistics Report released Tuesday. U. S. business logistics costs totaled $2. 4 trillion last year, or 7. 8% of gross domestic product, down from $2. 6 trillion and 8. 7% of GDP in 2025.

The report, authored by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, identifies five structural forces that continue to reshape the macro environment.

These include asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions, geoeconomic realignment, labor and productivity constraints, and energy price volatility. Regional growth remains uneven, with the United States, India and Southeast Asia outperforming Europe and Gulf economies.

Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and frequent tariff changes add ongoing pressure to trade lanes. For carriers and shippers, the findings represent more than another difficult year. Traditional drivers of performance such as demand recovery and network scale are becoming less reliable. Success now depends more on building resilience into operations.

This includes maintaining pricing discipline, and accelerating investments in digital tools and automation. The goal is to deliver measurable returns under volatile conditions. Artificial intelligence has crossed from evaluation into commercial application in targeted areas.

The report notes progress in using AI to interpret network signals, predict disruptions, recommend actions and execute workflows. Physical automation in warehouses and transportation are showing early commercial milestones.

Adoption remains uneven, however, widening the gap between companies embedding AI into core operations and those still limited to isolated point solutions.

Five structural forces define the macro outlook The report identifies five persistent structural forces showing no signs of resolution: asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions driven by persistent inflation and rising public debt, accelerating trade flow and geoeconomic realignment, labor market and productivity constraints and energy price volatility.

The report notes a divergence in regional growth across the globe. The United States projects 2. 2 percent to 2. 4 percent growth for 2026, while India and Southeast Asia lead expansion. Europe lags at roughly 1 percent. GCC economies have turned negative, contracting 1. 2 percent as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy flows.

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a defining chokepoint, carrying 20 million barrels of oil per day and 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade. Tariff policy was another major factor. It changed on average every 1. 5 weeks in 2025, creating what the report calls a “paralysis effect” on network reconfiguration decisions.

AI crosses from trial to measurable returns Artificial intelligence has evolved beyond trials and reached a genuine turning point in logistics. It is no longer an experimental technology. Instead, it is now delivering measurable commercial returns in specific, well-defined applications.

The report frames AI value creation through four capabilities: interpret, predict, recommend and execute. Interpret and predict are the most mature, built on years of investment in visibility platforms and telematics. Physical AI, covering warehouse robotics and autonomous vehicles, is producing some of the industry’s most visible commercial milestones.

Adoption remains uneven, widening the gap between organizations that have embedded AI into core workflows and those still confined to isolated point solutions. Freight sector divergence intensifies Air freight posted record cargo volumes in 2025 with global demand up 3. 4 percent, but corridor-level results told the real tale. Asia-Europe surged 10.

3 percent as shippers rerouted around disruptions while Asia-North America slipped 0. 8 percent. Early 2026 showed acceleration, but rising fuel costs, sustainable aviation fuel requirements and geopolitical routing constraints are adding volatility.

The market is shifting toward value-dense cargo where speed and reliability matter more than pure freight cost. The U. S. parcel and last-mile sector has undergone a structural reset, not post-pandemic normalization. Removal of de minimis treatment for China-origin parcels cut daily volumes by about 85 percent, pushing volume toward domestic fulfillment.

Carrier costs have reset with general rate increases around 5. 9 percent plus fuel and accessorial surcharges. Demand remains supported by more than $1. 23 trillion in U. S. e-commerce but has split into a barbell: ultra-low-cost regional delivery on one end and premium-speed service on the other.

Platform-controlled routing is shifting advantage from network ownership to intelligence and integration. The third-party logistics (3PL) sector sits at a strategic inflection point. Shippers are moving from transactional execution to