Coming weeks will see multiple factors reset ocean rates

But supply chain normalcy is likely months off as anxious shippers spur an early peak in a rush to beat fuel surcharges and price hikes by Asian manufacturers. Spot rates on the benchmark Asia-U. S. West Coast route were unchanged at $4,836 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) in the latest week, according to the Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO) Baltic Index.

The price for Asia-U. S. East Coast service was 4% higher at $6,558 per FEU. The United States and Iran are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19, few details of which have been made public.

That will re-open the Strait of Hormuz within a reported 30 days, which had been effectively closed to global shipping since shortly after the start of the war in late February. Washington and Iran will have 60 days to negotiate the terms of a formal deal.

“The war’s broadest impact on freight markets has been via upward pressure on fuel prices,” said Freightos Research Chief Judah Levine, in a note to clients. “The reopening could mean some near term easing of fuel costs for carriers.

President Trump asserts that the Strait will be fully open by the time of the signing, but even if both blockades are lifted then, the consensus is that a full return of traffic will likely take months as the narrow passage is further narrowed by Iranian mines.”

Some countries which have committed to the de-mining process have expressed reservations about participating until a final peace accord is completed. A trickle of ships had been using the few safe lanes established under Iranian control and the U. S. naval blockade.

Levine quoted estimates that it could take several weeks for daily vessel transits to return to half pre-war levels, and as long as six months for oil flows to normalize.

“In addition to out-of-place tankers and damage to infrastructure, even once vessels exit, it takes about seven weeks for crude to arrive in the Far East,” he said, “with an even longer timeline for availability of refined products like bunker and jet fuel first dependent on those crude shipments arriving.”

A priority by countries to replenish strategic reserves could mean a rebound of commercial supply rebound will be drawn out, moderating downward pressure on oil prices and the cost of fuel.

“Near-term easing of fuel costs would reduce some of the upward pressure on [container] rates that have kept prices higher year-on-year since the start of the war,” Levine said.

”But while reduced Emergency Fuel Surcharges will be relevant for spot shipments, large shippers with annual contracts will still be paying higher rates via third quarter Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAFs) even as fuel costs decline.” Post-fuel issues, Levine expects vessel capacity to pressure container prices downward as they had prior to the war.

“And if the peace deal hastens a broad carrier return to the Red Sea, that downward pressure will be even stronger,” he said. That gradual timeline is too late to influence the peak season, though, where demand is driving spiking rates.

General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) went into effect June 1, making mid-month increases likely to stick as carriers roll containers and reduce allocations.

The peak season’s early start, driven in part by frontloading ahead of BAF increases, tariffs, and coming manufacturer price hikes could see bookings top out in June, spurring resistance to July increases. Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here. \U. S. -Iran peace deal reopens Strait of Hormuz Shippers say renewed tax on Chinese ships could put some U. S.

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