Commerce finding on van imports may give relief to beleaguered Wabash

Just as van trailer builder Wabash National found itself with another downgrade to its debt, there was the prospect of some relief on the horizon from a process that will put countervailing duties on imports from China and Mexico. The downgrade by S&P Global Ratings (NYSE: SPGI) on Wabash (NYSE: WNC) last week did not break new ground.

In reducing its rating on Wabash to B- from B, S&P Global was matching the recent downgrade by Moody’s. That competing agency last month cut its rating on Wabash to B3, the third reduction by that agency in a year. The Moody’s grade of B3 and the S&P Global Ratings grade of B- are considered equivalent.

But there might be a changed market ahead for Wabash and other trailer builders based on a recent pair of findings by the Commerce Department on the size of countervailing duties to be applied to van trailer imports from those two countries. The complaint was brought to the Commerce Department by the American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition.

It’s a three-company group: Wabash, Great Dane and Stoughton Trailers. ‘Unfairly subsidize’ In a pair of notices posted last week in the Federal Register, the Commerce Department said it had determined that China and Mexico, as the coalition said in its reaction to the decision, “unfairly subsidize their van-type trailer industries.”

The countervailing duties to be applied to China will range from 82. 3% to 128. 7%, depending on the exporter. But the largest of them will be against a company called CIMC. The Mexican countervailing duties are also dependent on the exporter but are less than 2%.

In its prepared statement, the coalition said it “applauds Commerce’s decision to impose preliminary duties as the first step towards introducing fairness in the U. S. van-type trailer market and looks forward to Commerce’s antidumping preliminary determination later this summer.” The coalition estimates that about 40% of the U. S.

market for van trailers is supplied by China, Mexico and Canada combined. Its summation of import data is that the U. S. imported about 48,000 van trailers per year between 2015-2017. That number between 2022 and 2024 was an annual average of 80,600 trailers.

Wabash’s quarterly earnings publishes data on the number of vans it supplied, and it shows a significant downturn in recent years. Will the end of the freight recession mean the number of trailers built by $WNC hit its low water mark in the first quarter of this year? #trucking pic. twitter.

com/pQ0qQfAG1P— John Kingston (@JohnHKingston) May 2, 2026 The coalition originally filed a complaint against Canadian imports as well. But subassembles from China are sent to Canada for final assembly, and the Commerce Department decision pulled in those finished exports from Canada under the Chinese countervailing duties.

With that decision in hand, the coalition withdrew the Canadian portion of its request. First action taken The coalition had not filed any previous action on imports before those against the three countries.

,”Trailer imports surged in the past few years with severe negative financial consequences for the domestic industry’s financial performance,” a coalition spokesman said about the Commerce Department decision. “Trade action was necessary to stop the continuing harm to the domestic industry.”

The process from this point on, according to trade attorneys knowledgeable about the process, is that the Customs and Border Protection agency will require that importers of both finished and semi-finished vans immediately begin to post a cash deposit at the rates found by Commerce, which are considered preliminary.

Process is ongoing Commerce’s findings are preliminary and the investigation will continue. The final rate could be more or less. The coalition is expecting the final determination on the Chinese rate to be mid-August with Mexico in mid-December.

The International Trade Commission will be conducting its own investigation to determine whether the domestic van industry has been injured by the imports. That investigation is expected to be completed by mid-October, and is said to be likely to be the prevailing decision for all the countries.

The countervailing duties would be levied on top of section 301 duties that have been in effect since May 2019. That levy is 25%. In its report on Wabash, issued just before the Commerce Department findings were released, S&P Global said countervailing duties “may be somewhat beneficial over the next several years.”

“If Wabash’s petition is successful, average price for trailers from international competitors may increase, potentially making its trailers more attractive to freight carriers,” S&P Global said. Much of the S&P Global report on Wabash repeated similar arguments heard from Moody’s.

“Certain freight market indicators show signs of improvement, although the timing for trailer and truck body recovery and the magnitude of a potential rebound remain uncertain,” S&P Global said. “We expect reported free operating cash flow defi