Rail and truck data highlight a strong industrial economy

U. S. freight railroads delivered one of their strongest performances in years during March 2026, signaling that the goods-producing economy is regaining meaningful momentum across multiple sectors. According to the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) latest Rail Industry Overview, total U. S.

rail carloads averaged 230,401 per week in March — the strongest March result since 2019 and the highest monthly average since October 2022. Carloads rose 1. 7% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. For the first quarter, carloads totaled 2. 68 million, up 4. 2% from 2025 and the strongest Q1 performance since 2019.

The recovery is notably broad-based: 12 of the 20 major carload categories posted year-over-year gains in March, a trend that has held since January. This breadth suggests genuine stabilization and expansion in the underlying goods economy.

Intermodal traffic also showed improvement, averaging 280,076 units per week (the second-highest March level on record) and rising 1. 4% year-over-year. The American Manufacturing Renaissance is happening.

We are now getting confirmation from multiple freight and supply chain datasets that the industrial recovery is real and manufacturing is on course to enjoy one of the best markets in years. The domestic freight market… pic. twitter.

com/DaxvmrXwHp— Craig Fuller (@FreightAlley) April 4, 2026 Industrial Goods Signal Strength Rail volumes tied to industrial activity are among the clearest bright spots, with firming demand across industrial inputs and chemicals. Chemical shipments stand out as a particularly strong indicator.

The AAR report states: “Chemical shipments remain one of the clearest indicators of industrial health, and they continue to outperform.” March chemical volumes reached a record weekly average of 35,580 carloads, up 5. 5% year-over-year. First-quarter chemical volumes were the highest on record. This performance reflects the competitiveness of U. S.

chemical producers, supported by advantaged domestic natural gas prices that provide both energy and feedstock, pointing to sustained domestic production and export demand. Grain traffic also contributed significantly, with volumes up 10. 3% to over 97,900 carloads in March and the highest Q1 since 1993.

Carloads excluding coal — a cleaner read on industrial, agricultural, and consumer-linked freight — averaged 171,338 per week in March, the strongest March level since 2008 and the highest monthly level since August 2019. Year-to-date, these volumes are up 4. 5% and at their highest level since 2015.

New trade data adds further evidence of a manufacturing buildup. Capital goods now make up a record 41% of all U. S. goods imports — largely specialized equipment supporting future production capacity — while the overall trade deficit in the first two months of 2026 is down 55% compared to the same period in 2025.

This shift points to businesses actively positioning for expanded domestic output. SONAR Data and Shipper Sentiment Reinforce Industrial Resilience Complementing the rail strength, FreightWaves SONAR flatbed data shows clear resilience in industrial and construction-related freight.

Flatbed tender rejection rates have remained elevated in recent weeks, frequently exceeding 40% in March — levels well above year-ago figures and indicative of significant capacity tightness in the open-deck segment. The SONAR Flatbed Truckload Volume Index, when adjusted for tender rejections, has averaged 22% higher in March compared to 2025.

This reflects notable strength in the spot market for heavy industrial freight. Spot market momentum is further confirmed by broker-posted data from Truckstop. com. Load postings reached the highest level since June 2022 and ran 26% above the same week in 2025. This strength in posted loads underscores robust underlying demand across equipment types.

SONAR’s National Truckload Index (NTI. USA) — the seven-day moving average of booked dry van spot rates (fuel included) — provides additional depth, showing rates breaking out to new cycle highs in the $3. 10 per mile on Friday, the strongest levels since March 2022. Flatbed was even more robust (FTI. USA) hitting the highest levels ever recorded at $3.

95 per mile. This spot market strength underscores accelerating carrier pricing power and tightening capacity in the for-hire truckload sector. Further support for improving freight demand comes from the American Trucking Associations (ATA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, which surged 2. 6% in February to 116. 2 (2015=100) — its highest level in three years.

The index also rose 2. 1% year-over-year, the largest annual gain since October 2022. The ATA surveys its own carrier members, who tend to haul more shipper-direct (contract) freight than spot market freight, providing a valuable read on committed, longer-term volumes that often move ahead of spot market trends.

This tightness in flatbed markets — which move heavy industrial goods, steel, building materials, machinery, and