Broker RXO sees TL spot rate surge extend into Q3

Freight broker RXO said Tuesday that its truckload spot rate index recorded its biggest sequential gain in five years during the second quarter. The dataset, which tracks linehaul rates excluding fuel surcharges, has continued to step higher in the third quarter.

“The index has not experienced this level of rate inflation since pandemic-era surges, with the second quarter hitting both the highest year-over-year reading and largest sequential increase since the second quarter of 2021,” the report said. RXO’s (NYSE: RXO) Curve Report showed second-quarter spot rates were up 32. 4% y/y, an acceleration from the 16.

5% y/y increase booked in the first quarter. So far in the third quarter, the index is up 43% y/y. Rate data from FreightWaves shows the spot market has cooled following a July 5 peak. Truckload activity typically slows following the holiday and remains relatively weak in the weeks leading up to peak season.

SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL. USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel.

Rates remain significantly higher on a y/y comparison in August. To learn more about SONAR, click here. Corey Klujsza, RXO’s vice president of pricing and procurement, said shipper routing guides are seeing “increased strain” as spot rates have “consistently outpaced contract rates” this year.

“That trend is not only continuing but picking up steam as we head into peak season,” Klujsza said. “Though we’ve been in a year-over-year inflationary environment for over two years, the truckload market is starting to feel materially different.”

A steady exodus of capacity due to heightened regulatory enforcement and years of poor carrier economics has materially tightened the market even in the absence of a meaningful demand inflection. Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said the inflationary rate environment is likely to continue even with muted freight volumes.

He noted carrier operating costs are up 29% (ex-fuel) from the prior cycle peak, meaning rates still need to move significantly higher to improve carrier margins. “Any sustained increase in shipping volumes will further strain an already diminished supply base and add more inflationary pressure on rates,” Weisfeld said.

RXO’s all-in cost-per-mile index, which includes fuel surcharges, stood at 154. 9 in the second quarter, the highest reading since the 2022 first quarter. Data from Cass Information Systems (NASDAQ: CASS) showed contract rates (excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges) were up 6% y/y on average in the second quarter, which was a step up from the 2.

4% average y/y increase logged in the first quarter. Cass’ TL linehaul rate index was 8. 6% higher y/y in July. SONAR: Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI. USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the tender rejection index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers.

Current tender rejections show a tight truckload market. Public TL carriers reported large y/y contractual rate increases in the second quarter as shippers have become more selective.

This shift is largely driven by concerns over potential legal liabilities tied to employing non-compliant carriers, alongside fears of carriers defaulting on capacity obligations throughout peak season. Schneider National’s (NYSE: SNDR) one-way fleet recorded double-digit rate increases on contract renewals in the second quarter.

The company plans to place additional equipment into the spot market to take advantage of favorable market dynamics after losing a large dedicated customer. Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) reported a 10% y/y increase in revenue per total mile in the recent period. It forecast a 10% to 13% y/y increase in rate per mile for the third quarter.

RXO noted “a few reasons to be optimistic heading into this peak season,” as retailers continue to log same-store sales growth while their inventories remain “healthy.” “If demand follows typical seasonality, we would expect even further rate volatility to close out 2026.” Why it matters?

These rate trends signal a shift in market leverage where tightening capacity and rising carrier costs have ushered in more aggressive pricing strategies to improve margins.

This environment, characterized by spot rates outpacing contract agreements, underscores the urgent need for shippers to secure reliable carrier capacity and proactively manage potential routing guide deterioration ahead of peak season.

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