One man paints challenging outlook for brokers’ insurance

It’s just a single report and the words of one person quoted in it, but an outlook by TD Cowen on what broker insurance might do in the wake of the Montgomery decision is sobering.

In a report from the transportation team at TD Cowen led by managing director Jason Seidl, based on a phone call with an unidentified “trucking insurance agency executive,” TD Cowen said what it has heard so so far on the looming rise in insurance premiums for brokers due to Montgomery fallout has been enough that “commentary from our call keeps us negative on the brokers.”

That negative outlook at TD Cowen is for three companies, TD Cowen said: RXO (NYSE: RXO), C. H. Robinson (NASDAQ: CHRW) and Landstar (NASDAQ: LSTR).

The Montgomery decision from May removed liability and negligence protection for brokers that had been provided by several court decisions involving an interpretation of the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act (F4A).

Tripling of premiums TD Cowen said an unidentified “top 10” freight broker recently saw a tripling of its liability insurance that was recently renewed. Overall, TD Cowen said, “we estimate that large brokers currently have (approximate) mid-teens rate and mid-20’s rate (increases)…that imply material premium inflation.”

TD Cowen’s guest commentator said there was likely to be “sizeable inflation” in insurance premiums. And it’s not as if the brokers can easily turn to competitors for a cheaper quote.

“There are only ~10 underwriters involved in broker auto liability that will likely decrease over time,” TD Cowen said, with the likelihood that will decline to eight in the future. That group of ten insurers already has shrunk, the report said: “exits have already begun with two observed recently.”

The specifics on a recent increase in premiums, TD Cowen said, is that “a large broker which the agent secured coverage for saw premium costs increase from $3 million to $10 million in their excess coverage layer above the $15 million primary layers.”

Up and down post big decisions What constitutes a level of acceptable coverage beyond the “primary layer” both after the Montgomery Supreme Court decision and the $600 million nuclear verdict against C. H. Robinson in the case of Lipe vs. Lupus Superior has thrown the insurance market into volatility just in the last three to four months, Seidl said.

The insurance executive interviewed by Seidl said post-Montgomery, which came down May 14, “everything went ballistic,” Seidl said. But insurance rates after that first surge fell, according to the insurance executive, “then post the Lipe case (which produced its nuclear verdict in late July), everything started going haywire again.”

Seidl said in an interview with FreightWaves that the view of the insurance executive is that sort of volatility “is a clear sign that the insurers aren’t yet comfortable with the amount of liability they’re taking on, because they’re trying to assess it themselves and it’s quickly developing. So it matters when you renew.”

Nobody’s rushing to take their place. “Appetite to reinsure this group of carriers has also diminished with some recent exits,” the report said. “Underwriters are still in early stages of pricing and could see more inflation ahead as they analyze loss rates and risk.” Brokerage universe to shrink?

The guest executive added his voice to a growing view that Montgomery, and the list of higher costs that will come with it in insurance and vetting, will combine to reduce the number of 3PLs operating in the market. “Our panelist believes that over time we should expect industry consolidation among freight brokers,” the TD Cowen report said.

“With roughly 22K brokers in the industry, the top 100 control 84%; smaller carriers will likely face unsustainable insurance headwinds in the coming years.”

Shippers are going to look closer at their carriers or the brokers that hire them, the insurance executive said, according to TD Cowen, even though recent attempts to drag shippers into negligence cases have fallen short.

The end result, the TD Cowen report said, is that “small brokers will face increased scrutiny from their shipper base, impacting their top line, and insurance headwinds (and the lost ability to cut corners) should pressure margins.” C. H.

Robinson and RXO more assuring The somewhat apocalyptic tone of the TD Cowen report, and the statements of the guest commentator from the insurance industry, stand in stark contrast to comments made by C. H. Robinson CEO David Bozeman at a recent investors’ conference hosted by Deutsche Bank.

According to a transcript of his remarks, Bozeman said insurance “on a gross revenue basis is a very immaterial number for us.” That doesn’t mean the company expects their insurance costs to hold steady, Bozeman said. “We do not believe this inflation is going to drive it to a material number for us going forward,” Bozeman said.

“And whatever that inflation is, we’ll offset that and continue to deliver the results that we’ve been d