Supply driven trucking market cycle explained in the data

Chart of the Week: Accepted Truckload Volume Index, SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – USA SONAR: ASTVI. USA, STRI. USA The Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI), which measures the volume of truckload tenders carriers accept for loads moved under existing rate agreements, averaged around 9,800 last week.

The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI), which measures the percentage of tendered loads rejected, hovered around 13. 5%. While both are down from their 12-month highs, together they suggest the current truckload market cycle is more supply-driven than any in recent history — and still has room to run.

Accepted tender volumes are a fairly good proxy for total truckload demand when rejection rates are relatively low (<5%). When rejection rates are higher, ASTVI becomes more likely to undercount total demand, as more loads get covered on the spot market or outside existing contracts.

Accepted volumes and tender rejection signals When the trucking market tightens and rejection rates increase, accepted volumes become a useful anchor for how much freight carriers are able to cover with existing capacity. When ASTVI rises and STRI declines, that’s a sign of capacity growth or an improvement in market efficiency.

A good signal of capacity erosion is when accepted tenders are flat and rejections rise, as was the case in October of both 2024 and 2025. When the two fall together, that’s more reflective of pure demand deterioration — as was the case this past July. The recent drop in demand pulled rejection rates lower, but that wasn’t a sign that capacity had grown.

Shippers have been using intermodal more frequently because of its cost savings relative to trucking. Demand-side conditions tend to be more volatile and move the market faster. Supply-side shifts are much slower — which is why it took more than three years for the market to correct the dramatic oversupply that followed COVID.

Recent ASTVI levels are actually close to where they were in 2019 — lower than most of the past four years, with the exception of last October and November. Rejection rates were below 5% for most of 2019 and below 6% last fall — roughly the same demand, but with more than twice the tightness.

Supply’s slow crawl While demand deterioration is still possible, the data suggests there’s more room for it to grow than to contract. Recent Q2 2026 earnings reports show no evidence of fleet growth — most carriers reported annual declines in active units.

Class 8 orders are up this year, but that’s off an abysmal 2025 comp, and both ACT and FTR cite fleet replacement, not growth, as the primary driver. It may still be early to see strong movement, but carriers are coming off one of the longest and most challenging freight markets since the Great Recession in 2009. Cash reserves are low and debt is high.

This cycle still has a ways to go if the goods economy holds up. Risks skew toward further tightening rather than rapid softening — demand growth, rail disruptions, intermodal rate increases, and continued government pressure on capacity all point the same way.

About the Chart of the Week The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time.

Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves. com for future reference.

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