Housing Market Crash Slams Last-Mile Delivery: What’s Next?

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6}#fwtv_dh0dCHvsmlU. fwtv-panel p{margin:0 0 12px}#fwtv_dh0dCHvsmlU. fwtv-transcript p{margin:0 0 12px}SummaryView TranscriptThe last-mile delivery sector for big and bulky items is experiencing a significant slowdown, with growth rates halved.

FreightWaves’ Eric Kulisch breaks down how a weak housing market, high mortgage rates, and shifting consumer behavior are directly impacting the movement of furniture, appliances, and more. Learn why execution and AI-driven technology are becoming crucial for survival in a highly competitive landscape.

The big-and-bulky last-mile delivery market is cooling sharply, and the housing market is largely to blame.

A joint report from Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association found that the segment — covering items such as furniture, appliances, and exercise equipment delivered by box truck with in-home installation — grew at just over 10% annually over the past eight years but is now forecast to expand at roughly a 5% rate between last year and 2027.

High mortgage rates are the primary drag. Homeowners who locked in low rates years ago are reluctant to trade up to a new property at today’s 6% to 7% range, while elevated home prices are keeping potential buyers on the sidelines. Fewer home sales mean fewer furniture and appliance purchases, directly suppressing demand for white-glove delivery services.

“The big thing is kind of this housing market influence on the last mile delivery sector and e-commerce,” said the industry analyst appearing on the program, who identified home delivery as his area of expertise.

Tariff-driven cost pressures on steel-heavy goods such as appliances added to last year’s headwinds, though those costs have “kind of normalized,” the analyst said. Discretionary spending remains squeezed, keeping consumers cautious about large-ticket home purchases even as some of the tariff volatility fades.

Competition inside the sector has intensified after a wave of entrants over the past five to 10 years, squeezing margins and making differentiation difficult.

The Armstrong & Associates report concluded that winning providers will focus on execution over novel service offerings, leaning on AI-driven tools — route optimization, predictive ETA, and computer vision for damage assessment — to wring out efficiency gains.

Consolidation is also on the horizon, according to the report, particularly as the economics of serving rural and suburban stops grow more challenging. Building scale or a broader national footprint is increasingly necessary to make unit economics work in lower-density markets. Labor availability adds another layer of uncertainty.

Regulatory enforcement targeting non-domiciled CDL drivers — a group that has historically filled straight-truck and box-truck roles attractive to last-mile operators — is shrinking the available driver pool, according to the analyst, who noted the concern is widespread among industry members even though specific data on the impact are not yet available.

Big-and-bulky last-mile growth is forecast to slow to ~5% annually through 2027, down from 10%-plus over the prior eight years, per Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association. A stalled housing market — driven by 6–7% mortgage rates and high home prices — is the chief factor suppressing furniture and appliance delivery demand.

The sector faces fierce competition, pressure to invest in AI-driven efficiency tools, likely consolidation, and a tightening driver pool due to CDL regulatory enforcement. Speaker 1 [0:00] Eric, how are you, sir, today? Speaker 2 [0:02] Hey, good morning, Craig. Thanks for having me on.

Speaker 1 [0:04] Do you wanna narrate our F3 video or do you wanna talk home delivery? Speaker 2 [0:09] Home delivery is my wheelhouse, so I’ll stay there.

Speaker 1 [0:12] All right, you’re not a professional voice actor, but let’s talk about this report that came out from Armstrong and Associates and the National Home Delivery Association, all about growth in the big and bulky and last mile delivery segment. What did you learn?

Speaker 2 [0:29] Well, it’s interesting, you know, as you know, last mile delivery, most people th