First look: RXO optimistic about 2Q after a tough first quarter
RXO logistics company reported Q1 2026 EBITDA of $6 million (down from $22 million in Q1 2025) but forecasts Q2 EBITDA of $27-37 million. The company expects contract freight rates to rise high-single digits for 2026, up from earlier low-to-mid single digit forecasts.
Rising freight rates will increase shipping costs for sellers across all platforms, particularly those using contract logistics services. Monitor your shipping cost per unit trends and consider renegotiating fulfillment contracts before Q2 rate increases take effect.
This reflects broader supply chain inflation pressures that will compress seller margins, especially for bulky or heavy products relying on contract freight services.
Review shipping cost per unit in your seller dashboard - if trending up 5%+ month-over-month, lock in current rates with 3PL providers before Q2.
Audit product margins for items with high shipping-to-price ratios and consider price adjustments for Q2 launches.
Bottom Line
Freight rate increases mean higher shipping costs for sellers in Q2.
Source Lens
Industry Context
Useful background context, but lower-priority than direct platform, community, or operator intelligence.
Impact Level
medium
Freight rate increases mean higher shipping costs for sellers in Q2.
Key Stat / Trigger
high-single digit contract rate increases expected for 2026
Focus on the operational implication, not just the headline.
Full Coverage
RXO had the type of rough quarter that might be expected given rising spot freight rates against lower contract numbers, but it foresees a significantly better second quarter. In its earnings released Thursday morning prior to an 8 a. m. EDT conference call, the company said it expected a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $27 million to $37 million.
That is coming after a first quarter EBITDA number of $6 million. It also would be accomplished with RXO (NYSE: RXO) expecting volume growth to be flat year-over-year. It also said it expects second quarter truckload gross profit per load would increase sequentially. The downside of the market structure that hit RXO is that its revenue was flat at $1.
4 billion, but its gross margin was 14. 2%, compared to 16% in the first quarter of 2025. The first quarter GAAP net loss was $36 million, compared to $31 million a year earlier. The figure for 2026 was impacted by $20 million in other charges.
But the adjusted figure also was worse than the prior year, an adjusted net loss of $16 million compared to $5 million a year earlier. The adjusted EBITDA figure of $6 million was less than the $22 million in 2025’s first quarter.
RXO was able to increase its spot mix, which helped move it away from the contract business impacted negatively by higher spot rates. The company said its spot mix was 33% of volume in the quarter, compared to 28% sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2025.
That helped produce what RXO said was “the largest sequential increase in gross profit per load in more than three years.” The growth in truckload spot mix was 600 basis points year-over-year. In its forecast, RXO said it expected contract rates to be up high-single digits for all of 2026, which is more than its earlier forecast of low to mid-single digits.
The type of conditions RXO faced were clear in its revenue figure of $1. 425 billion. That was down slightly from $1. 433 billion a year earlier. But its cost of transportation and services rose to $1. 171 billion from $1. 153 billion. More articles by John Kingston Motus steps up: what carriers need to know about new FMCSA ystem After CBS report, C. H.
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Original Source
This briefing is based on reporting from Freightwaves. Use the original post for full primary-source context.
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