Freight Rates AREN’T Falling: Industry Vet’s Bold Prediction & Advice

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6}#fwtv_gYayzVqmcuE. fwtv-panel p{margin:0 0 12px}#fwtv_gYayzVqmcuE. fwtv-transcript p{margin:0 0 12px}SummaryView TranscriptFreight rates are a hot topic, but one industry veteran says they’re not going down. Kevin Nolan, Founder of Sopa Creek, shares his candid insights on the state of freight brokerage, why he’s bullish on C. H.

Robinson, and how recent ‘nuclear’ legal judgments are reshaping the industry. He also offers essential advice for brokers navigating carrier vetting, factoring, and tracking to stay competitive. Freight rates are not going down.

That is the blunt assessment of Kevin Nolan, a serial freight brokerage entrepreneur who has started multiple billion-dollar-plus companies.

Speaking in a video interview, Nolan said unprecedented mid-summer contract re-rating activity and tender rejection rates still in double digits confirm the industry is in the earliest stages of a freight market recovery — not a false start.

“Contract rates lead everything,” Nolan said, explaining that RFP pricing has historically occurred in October and November. The fact that re-rating has been allowed in July, he argued, is a signal shippers recognize they quoted too low in prior cycles and are now willing to accept higher rates.

“I feel pretty good about freight rates for the next eighteen months,” he said. Nolan pointed to tender rejection data as further evidence. He noted that rejections dropped from 17% to 14% in August — a level he called elevated and unusual for that time of year.

The decline, he said, reflects mini-bids being settled at mutually acceptable contract rates rather than a softening market. “In August, guys. I don’t know if that’s ever happened,” he said of the 14% reading. “Freight rates aren’t going down. Okay. That’s what I’ll tell you. Freight rates are not going down.”

On the legal front, Nolan weighed in on the $604 million nuclear verdict against C. H. Robinson in Texas, calling it a seismic event for the brokerage industry.

He noted the verdict followed the Montgomery decision and came only three months later, and said Robinson would have to fight the judgment rather than settle — because a settlement at that figure would effectively invite further litigation industry-wide. Despite the legal overhang, Nolan said he bought more C. H.

Robinson stock the week of the verdict, citing the company’s roughly 60% stock gain over the prior 18 months and its standing as the largest freight broker in the industry. Nolan also warned that insurance costs represent a growing and unpredictable line item for brokers — one contributing to investor uncertainty across the sector.

He offered a practical vetting framework for carriers: look at which insurance company covers a fleet, since major insurers conduct on-site safety and hiring reviews before binding coverage. He added that 90% of truckers use factoring companies, making those relationships another useful proxy for carrier quality.

Length of time in business and red flags like a two-week-old MC number or a generic Gmail address on a load confirmation were also cited as warning signs brokers should not ignore.

Nolan was critical of the influx of capital and new entrants into freight brokerage from 2019 through approximately 2024, arguing that operators willing to lose money — he cited an example of losing $800 moving a load of beer — drove a race to the bottom on rates without improving the industry’s fundamentals.

He said that era contributed to the prolonged freight downturn and that its unwinding is part of what is now setting the stage for a sustained rate recovery. Nolan also noted that freight and logistics, including international shipping and warehousing, still represents more than 27% of GDP, making it one of the largest and most fragmented sectors in the U.

S. economy. Nolan says unprecedented July contract re-rating and 14% tender rejection in August signal a real, early-stage freight market recovery with rates rising over the next 18 months. Despite the $604 million nuclear verdict against C. H.

Robinson, Nolan bought more company stock, citing its roughly 60% gain over the prior 18 months and its market-leading position. Nolan advises brokers