International mail with Chapter 98 or 99 duties loses its easy customs lane on January 20. Find out how your supplies arrive

What changed

On October 22, CBP published a final rule in the Federal Register (91 FR 66638) moving a compliance date from October 22, 2026 to January 20, 2027. The date applies to 19 CFR 145.12(a)(2)(v) and (vi), which make international mail shipments ineligible for CBP's new postal informal entry process if they are subject to duties under Chapter 98 or Chapter 99 of the tariff schedule, claim Chapter 98 or free-trade-agreement duty-free treatment, or are subject to other agencies' import requirements. This is not limited to goods from China. The rule says that at the end of the delay, filers "may choose to file formal entry" or take part in the Entry Type 13 test for eligible shipments. It describes that test as a voluntary, optional alternative to formal entry, and says it began on September 22. CBP gave the reason as more time for importers, brokers and logistics providers to update their systems. CBP's e-commerce FAQ, last modified September 2, still shows October 22 as the effective date, so check the Federal Register rule, not the FAQ. The FAQ says ineligible merchandise must be entered "under another appropriate entry process, such as an Entry Type 13 or formal entry."

CBP's October 14 news release words it differently. It says that from January 20 CBP "requires the use" of Entry Type 13 for informal entry of international postal shipments subject to Section 201, 232 or 301 duties or the jurisdiction of another agency, and that otherwise formal entry is required. It does not mention Chapter 98 or all of Chapter 99, and it does not call the test voluntary. We could not reconcile that wording with the Federal Register rule, so ask your broker which applies to your shipments.

This is the latest step in a year of de minimis changes. Duty-free treatment for shipments of $800 or less was suspended for all countries from August 29, 2025 under Executive Order 14324. When the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, Executive Order 14388 kept the suspension in place the same day. On June 24, 2026, CBP wrote an indefinite suspension into its own regulations for both mail (91 FR 37801) and every other mode (91 FR 37789). The One Big Beautiful Bill Act ends the exemption by statute from July 1, 2027, per CBP's June rule, which also says CBP's regulatory suspension would stay in force even if the Executive Order were amended or removed.

Mail was treated differently until July 24. Under the interim process, CBP's June rule says, mail shipments that would have been de minimis paid only the flat 10% Section 122 surcharge, with no product classification required. The new postal informal entry process, in effect since July 24, requires the 10-digit tariff classification for every item and collects all applicable duties, per CBP's rule and FAQ. Only the owner or purchaser of the goods, or a licensed customs broker they designate, can file, and the filer needs a customs bond on file. Mail entries remain exempt from the merchandise processing fee except Inbound EMS, per the FAQ. CBP sampled 392,312 low-value non-mail entries from September to November 2025, found an average non-IEEPA duty of 8.62% of value, and used that rate to estimate that mail duties would rise by about $316 million a year.

The rate change underneath happened the same day. The 150-day Section 122 surcharge expired on July 24, and USTR's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs took effect for goods entered from 12:01 a.m. Eastern that day, per USTR's Federal Register notice (91 FR 47318) and BDO. Those duties cover all products of 60 economies, minus listed exemptions, under tariff headings 9903.05.20 through 9903.05.84, which are in Chapter 99. Products of China pay 12.5%. Seventeen economies, including Canada, Mexico, India and the United Kingdom, pay 10%, per USTR.

Why it matters: the mail lane was the last simple one

Put those two facts together. Our reading, which you should confirm with a licensed customs broker for your own tariff lines: a mail parcel of Chinese-made goods that is not on USTR's exemption list carries a Chapter 99 duty, so from January 20 it cannot use the postal informal entry process. China is a common case, not the only one. Any mail parcel carrying Chapter 98 or 99 duties is covered, as are parcels subject to other agencies' requirements, per the Federal Register rule. Someone with the right to make entry has to file formal entry or, per the rule and CBP's FAQ, use the voluntary Entry Type 13 test. The test is open to mail shipments of $2,500 or less, including Chapter 98 and 99 goods, and requires an importer number, every 10-digit classification, and a bond, per CBP's FAQ and its June 24 test notice. Goods under antidumping or countervailing duty orders, or quotas, need formal entry either way, per the FAQ.

CBP said in its June rule why it is doing this: under the interim process, importers could avoid Section 201, 232 and 301 duties by sending goods through the mail. That gap is closing in two steps. Full duty collection on mail started on July 24. The data and filing requirements for Chapter 98 and 99 goods arrive January 20.

Three kinds of sellers feel it. Makers and small brands who buy parts, filament, tools or packaging from overseas platforms and suppliers that ship by mail. Sellers who source or dropship low-value inventory directly from overseas to US buyers. And sellers outside the US who sell to US buyers on Etsy: since July 9, Etsy requires Delivered Duty Paid shipping on US orders, and if a carrier charges the buyer tariffs or collection fees, Etsy refunds the buyer and deducts the charge from the seller, per Etsy's announcement and Shipping Policy.

Our Intelligence Dossier called the end of de minimis a durable relative gain for sellers who hold US inventory, because direct-from-China retail lost its structural duty advantage. The January 20 date is the mail half of that story. Our hypothesis, which we have not measured: after January 20, overseas sellers and platforms that still ship small orders by mail will either charge more to cover the entry work, push buyers to Delivered Duty Paid prices, or move volume to express couriers and bulk shipments into US warehouses. If you buy inputs that way, your price or your delivery time is likely to change in Q1.

The math, in one line

On the hypothetical order above, the duty goes from $4.00 to $6.00, a 50% rise, before any broker or carrier entry fee. Your real line may carry other Chapter 99 duties, or an exemption, so take the rate from your broker's entry paperwork, not from this table. If you buy many small mail orders, the per-entry fee can end up larger than the duty. That is the number to get quoted before January 20.

What to do this week

This is not legal or customs advice. For classification and entry questions, use a licensed customs broker. For most small sellers, the work is a list and some emails:

• List every supplier or platform that ships to you from outside the US, and mark which arrive by international mail. Mail items carry a 13-character Universal Postal Union (S10) tracking number, per CBP's FAQ.
• Email each mail supplier three questions: who files the US entry for my orders after January 20, 2027; is the duty included in the price I pay; and what extra fee, if any, will I be charged per shipment. Get the answers in writing.
• Re-cost those inputs at the full duty for their tariff line plus any entry fee, not the old flat 10%. Re-run margins on the products that use them with the product profitability guide and your marketplace fee pages, and check the fee change log for fees that moved this year.
• Decide on Q1 timing now. If parts or supplies that carry Chapter 98 or 99 duties (China-made goods are a common case) come by mail and you will need them in January or February, either place those orders early enough to enter before January 20, or ask a broker to quote consolidating them into fewer, larger express or freight shipments. Our hypothesis is that one consolidated entry will beat dozens of small mail entries once each needs a filer, but run it with a real quote.
• If you sell to US buyers from outside the US, or fulfill US Etsy orders from overseas stock, ship Delivered Duty Paid and set US-specific prices that include the duty. Check your costs on our Etsy fee page.
• If you were the importer of record on 2025 shipments, the separate IEEPA refund clock is still running: see our IEEPA refund analysis.

What we are watching next

Forecast F10 on our forecast scorecard: de minimis is not restored before the statutory repeal takes effect in July 2027. It was logged on October 14, resolves July 1, 2027, and will be graded hit or miss against the Federal Register and CBP record. CBP's June rule makes its regulatory suspension independent of the Executive Order, but a congressional reversal is the stated way the call could fail, so we keep it open until it resolves.

Dated checkpoints: whether CBP holds January 20, 2027 or moves it again (it has already moved once, from October 22); updates to CBP's e-commerce FAQ, which still shows the old date, and whether CBP reconciles its October 14 news release with the Federal Register rule on scope and on whether Entry Type 13 is mandatory; how long the Entry Type 13 test runs, which CBP says continues until it announces an end in the Federal Register; changes to USTR's Section 301 exemption lists; the Federal Circuit appeal over the Section 122 surcharge, which the Court of International Trade held unlawful on May 7 before the appeals court stayed that ruling on May 12, per BDO; and July 1, 2027, when the statutory repeal takes effect. We track trade and logistics coverage on the intelligence dashboard.