NRF forecasts 4.4% retail sales growth this year despite rising uncertainty

The non-obvious read here is that 4. 4% aggregate growth masks a massive intra-category divergence — and that divergence is exactly where advertising CPCs will spike.

As budget-conscious consumers concentrate purchases in value channels, Walmart Marketplace and Amazon's lower-ASP segments will see volume surges while ad auction competition intensifies disproportionately.

A $10M/year seller should immediately audit their catalog for ASP distribution: SKUs priced above $75 in discretionary categories are at real risk of conversion rate compression even if impressions hold.

Starting Monday, reallocate 10-15% of your top-of-funnel Sponsored Brand budget toward Sponsored Product on your sub-$50 value-tier ASINs — that's where the tax refund dollars will actually land.

NRF's cautiously optimistic forecast signals that 2026 is shaping up as a tale of two consumers: the financially stressed shopper consolidating spend to value channels and the higher-income shopper remaining resilient but increasingly selective.

This accelerates a trend already visible in Q4 2025 — platform gravity shifting toward Walmart and Amazon's own private-label and value-positioned third-party sellers.

For marketplace operators, this is less a growth story and more a share-of-wallet war, where catalog positioning, inventory velocity, and ad efficiency determine winners far more than macro tailwinds.

Brands that haven't segmented their catalog by price-tier and channel fit by Q2 will find themselves paying premium ad rates to reach consumers who've already traded down past them.