Cass data shows freight market tightened further in March
Freight rates increased 9% year-over-year in March 2026 as driver shortages and new CDL rules tightened trucking capacity. Cass data shows freight volumes declining only 4.5% annually, the smallest drop since June, with rates expected to continue rising.
Rising freight costs will compress margins for sellers using FBM or 3PL services, while making FBA more attractive despite higher fees. Monitor your shipping costs closely as contract renewals could see significant rate increases in the back half of 2026.
This freight capacity crunch accelerates the shift toward platform-controlled fulfillment networks, giving Amazon and Walmart more leverage over independent sellers who rely on third-party logistics.
Review shipping contracts now -- if renewal is due in H2 2026, negotiate early or consider switching to FBA to lock in current rates.
Audit your FBM vs FBA profitability analysis using current freight cost increases to rebalance your fulfillment strategy.
Bottom Line
9% freight rate increases make FBA relatively cheaper for many sellers.
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Industry Context
Useful background context, but lower-priority than direct platform, community, or operator intelligence.
Impact Level
medium
9% freight rate increases make FBA relatively cheaper for many sellers.
Key Stat / Trigger
9% freight rate increase in March 2026
Focus on the operational implication, not just the headline.
Full Coverage
March data from Cass Information Systems showed freight shipment declines narrowed while rates continued to move higher. Cass’ (NASDAQ: CASS) multimodal shipments index increased 3% sequentially in March (up 1% seasonally adjusted), building on a 10. 4% increase in February (plus-4. 3% seasonally adjusted). The index was down just 4.
5% year over year in the recent month, the smallest y/y decline since June. On a two-year comparison, freight volumes tracked by Cass were off less than 10%. March 2026y/y2-yearm/mm/m (SA)Shipments-4. 5%-9. 5%3. 0%1. 0%Expenditures4. 2%2. 1%4. 9%2. 4%TL Linehaul Index1. 8%3. 4%-0.
5%NMTable: Cass Information Systems (SA – seasonally adjusted) The dataset has lagged other indicators, which are showing a more upbeat demand environment. Cass data includes a significant mix of less-than-truckload transactions.
Less-than-truckload demand is weighted to the industrial economy, which has been under pressure for the majority of the past three years. However, an LTL inflection may be nearing as the Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing has signaled growth in the first three months of the year.
The Tuesday report said the shipments index is “starting to catch up with other indicators” as “tightness in dry van truckload (TL) conditions is starting to radiate to other markets.” The index is expected to be off 5% y/y in April, assuming normal seasonal patterns hold, moving into positive territory in the back half of the year (plus-1.
5% is the current forecast). Even with the volume headwind, Cass’ expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, increased 4. 9% from February (up 2. 4% seasonally adjusted). A 4. 2% y/y increase during the month coupled with the 4. 5% decline in volumes implies actual freight rates were roughly 9% higher in the month.
However, changes in freight mix can alter the implied rate assumption. SONAR: Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI. USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the tender rejection index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers.
Current tender rejections show a tightened truckload market. To learn more about SONAR, click here. The report said a recent survey of midsize and large fleets showed some tightening in driver availability as new non-domicile CDL rules took effect in the month.
“Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates,” the report said. Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, increased 1. 8% y/y in March, marking 15 consecutive y/y increases. A modest 0.
5% step down from February was the first sequential decline in seven months. (The dataset includes for-hire spot and contract rates.) SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL. USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line).
The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates stepped higher through peak season as regulatory constraints on the driver pool took hold. Severe winter weather amid a tighter capacity backdrop kept rates elevated.
Rates are still notably higher on a y/y comparison in April. Higher diesel fuel prices, which pushed some operators to the sidelines, offset incremental capacity availability as carrier networks recovered from severe winter storms, the report said. “Considerable increases in contract rates are likely for the truckload market.
After a four-year bottoming phase of the for-hire cycle, we believe we’ve moved to the early cycle phase where capacity becomes short and rates rise.” Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass, a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $37 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.
More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden: PE firm acquires Carrier Logistics, pledges AI overhaul FedEx Freight sets goalposts for standalone business Freight market sees Covid-era extremes return The post Cass data shows freight market tightened further in March appeared first on FreightWaves.
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This briefing is based on reporting from Freightwaves. Use the original post for full primary-source context.
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