Ecommerce Trends: Which retailers could lower prices after tariff refunds

Throughout 2025 and 2026, retailers have adjusted projections, supply chain strategies and pricing as tariffs fluctuated — and now, as some of the biggest names in online retail pursue tariff refunds, some merchants are considering lower prices as a next step. What is already clear is that tariff refunds are beginning to flow in the aftermath of a U. S.

Supreme Court ruling in February that found President Donald Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enact tariffs in 2025 to be illegal. The White House has since pursued other tariffs on goods imported to the U. S. Nevertheless, U. S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is issuing refunds.

Tariff-related CBP refunds issued as of May 22 totaled “approximately $20. 6 billion,” the federal agency assessed in a May 26 court filing. In total, “approximately $85 billion in both potential and certified refunds have been accepted” through CBP’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal, which launched on April 20.

In the meantime, retail executives have begun addressing the impact that these refunds could have on their financial outlooks and planning. Among them is one of the two largest online merchants in North America: Walmart. Which retailers are open to lowering prices following tariff refunds?

At Walmart, leadership appeared to be open to the idea of lowering prices as it pursues tariff refunds.

During a May 21 earnings call to discuss Walmart’s earnings results in Q1, John Rainey, the company’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said while its “guidance does not assume any impact from IEEPA tariff refunds,” Walmart anticipates that it may be eligible to receive funds amounting to “less than half of 1% of our U. S. annual sales.”

Based on Walmart’s reported U. S. sales of $483. 0 billion during its 2026 fiscal year, its refunds could total more than $2. 4 billion. As of May 21, Rainey noted that Walmart was actively pursuing those refunds.

In addition, he floated the idea of price changes as a logical move in response to “pressure on consumers from fuel prices” and “the retention and the share gains” Walmart has recorded. “We think the single best return that we can have on $1 of capital right now is to invest in the customer and invest in price,” Rainey stated. Walmart is No.

2 in the Top 2000 Database. The database is Digital Commerce 360’s ranking of North America’s online retailers by their annual ecommerce sales. Walmart is also No. 8 in the Global Online Marketplaces Database. That database ranks the top such marketplaces by third-party gross merchandise value (GMV). Expected refunds at e. l. f.

Beauty In May, Walmart was not alone in bringing up tariff refunds on its earnings call. Executives from e. l. f. Beauty addressed the topic as well. Mandy Fields, senior vice president and chief financial officer at e. l. f.

Beauty, told investors that the retailer is “pursuing a refund on the IEEPA tariffs we paid last year, which stand at approximately $58. 5 million.” While tariff refunds were not yet factored into its outlook shared on the May 21 call, Fields and CEO Tarang Amin both shared potential follow-up actions. “I think it was about $58.

5 million that we’re expecting,” Amin said. “And our plan on those one-time tariff refunds is really to go back and invest in value and accelerating unit growth.” Fields further discussed what might take place.

“So the way that we’re approaching that is as these refunds come through, we would flow through a portion through cost of goods for any inventory that has been sold through that carries those IEEPA tariffs,” she said. “Anything remaining in inventory would go back into inventory and flow through as we sell through those items.” E. l. f. Beauty ranks No.

328 in the Top 2000. Pressure on Costco In other cases, retailers face outside pressure to lower prices. In one such case, Costco is fighting to dismiss a proposed class action. The case focuses on prices that the retailer charged before the Supreme Court’s decision in February.

Costco’s filing, dated May 18, argues that it “has received no tariff refunds yet and plaintiff’s theory of injury depends entirely on a series of uncertain future events.” Moreover, even if Costco were to receive refunds, the company does not believe the plaintiff in the case should be compensated.

Specifically, Costco asserts that the plaintiff, Matthew Stockov, “lacks standing to assert his claims, because he has suffered no harm.” Still, even before the Supreme Court decision, Costco announced it could take steps to lower prices in the future.

“During the second quarter, we lowered prices on key items such as eggs, cheese, coffee and some paper products as we saw lower inflation in these commodities,” said Ron Vachris, president, CEO and director at Costco, during its Q2 earnings call on March 5.

“We will continue to be a pricing authority, and as some tariffs have been reduced, we are lowering prices on affected items such