War’s over, but ocean rates face raft of challenges

While the United States and Iran continue to negotiate the terms of an agreement to end their hostilities and shipping slowly resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, the global container market can’t seem to move on from the plethora of critical issues pushing up rates.

Daily transits have collapsed from pre‑conflict levels of around 100–130 vessels per day – mostly tankers – to single- or low-double-digit daily crossings during the crisis, with some analyses reporting traffic at under 5–10% of normal levels at peak disruption.

Several trackers and intelligence reports show hundreds of vessels stranded inside the Persian Gulf. One of the largest to exit was the 16,000-TEU HMM Daon, which transited the strait on Monday, noted analyst Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime. Fuel costs are easing as oil flows recover, said Freightos research chief Judah Levine, in a note to clients.

“Bunker prices are down 25% from March highs and 12% since early June, while jet fuel is down more than 40% from its peak – though both remain well above pre-war levels,” Levine said. Total ocean bookings to the United States are about even y/y through June 23, according to SONAR‘s Ocean Volume Index.

Soaring costs and fears of tightening supplies at key bunkering centers had led shipping lines to implement emergency fuel surcharges on top of contractual adjustment mechanisms. That led at least one analyst to warn that shippers could be paying twice for increased fuel costs.

Those increases are just one factor behind climbing container rates as frontloading importers look to get ahead of Asia tariff deadlines and higher prices slated for July by manufacturers.

Trans-Pacific West Coast prices surged 19% to more than $5,700 per forty foot equivalent unit, according to the Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO) Baltic Index – with daily rates already past $6,000. East Coast rates surged 13% to $7,400 with the daily level now above $8,000 and above the peak season high in 2025.

Asia-Europe rates climbed 13% to $4,700 per FEU and Mediterranean jumped 16% to $6,300 per FEU, both above last year’s peak season highs, wrote Levine. Carriers are targeting $1,000-$3,000 per FEU increases for July, “though resistance to increases may be stronger than what carriers have encountered so far if demand is approaching its peak.”

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