Traffix expects double-digit rate increases to hold through 2026

The North American freight market has officially turned the corner. After more than three years of subdued rates following the COVID-era boom, carriers have exited the market in droves, regulatory headwinds have further crimped capacity, and freight volumes are once again climbing.

The result, according to Traffix’s newly released Q2 2026 Market Update, is a rapidly tightening environment where spot and contract rates are surging and shippers are being forced to rethink budgets that were built for last year’s softer conditions.

Traffix, the Ontario-based $1 billion gross revenue freight brokerage, paints a clear picture in its April 2026 report: demand is recovering while reduced capacity is driving a more reactive and volatile market.

“It’s pretty clear we’re heading into a new cycle,” said Alex Fuller, Senior Director of Revenue Management and Solutions at Traffix, in an interview with FreightWaves. “People might have thought that January was a hangover from peak and February [volatility] was [caused by] weather. But in March and April, we’re clearly moving into a new cycle.”

The cycle Traffix describes is the classic freight-market rhythm, only this time the upswing arrives against a backdrop of structurally lower capacity. During the prolonged low-rate period of 2023-2025, a meaningful amount of truckload capacity left the industry.

Regulatory enforcement, including English-language requirements for drivers and heightened scrutiny of non-domiciled CDLs, has further constrained the driver pool. Class 8 truck orders were strong in Q1 2026, but much of that activity reflects fleet replacement rather than net expansion. On the demand side, freight volumes have snapped back into growth mode.

March 2026 volumes were up approximately 8% year-over-year and reached multi-year highs, according to SONAR data cited in the report. Lean inventories, stronger manufacturing orders, and rising imports are all contributing.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI has returned to expansion territory for multiple consecutive months, with new orders, production growth, and imports feeding increased freight demand.

Meanwhile, the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) Transportation Price Index has surged to its highest level since 2022, while the capacity index has dropped below 40—signaling a widening gap that is shifting pricing power back to carriers. Fuel is adding accelerant to the fire. Diesel prices have increased sharply, up roughly 50% since early Q1 2026.

Those costs are flowing through to transportation rates with minimal lag, amplifying an already tightening market. Yet Traffix and Fuller emphasize that fuel is not the primary driver. Linehaul rates (excluding fuel) are up approximately 30% year-over-year, confirming a genuine supply-demand imbalance.

Tender rejection rates have remained above 10% for more than two months, a level that reinforces the structurally tight market. “Higher rates should attract new capacity,” the report notes, “but this process will take time.”

Fuller echoed that timeline: “Moving into a year or two of a normal freight cycle…for the next 6-12 months rates will continue to stay high and potentially get higher. We expect at least 12 months of higher rates before capacity can catch up.” Mode-specific outlooks in the Traffix report underscore the breadth of the tightening.

Dry-van rates are expected to remain elevated through mid-2026, supported by strong demand and tight capacity; contract increases will continue as shippers adjust to spot-market pressure. Flatbed markets are tightening rapidly due to construction, infrastructure, and industrial demand.

Reefer capacity is tightening ahead of produce season, with seasonal volatility and elevated rates expected through summer. Intermodal volumes are projected to grow 10% year-over-year as shippers seek cost and capacity relief. Cross-border lanes show nuanced dynamics: Canada-U. S.

capacity remains available with rates tracking broader truckload trends, while U. S. -Mexico lanes face localized constraints, especially in high-demand corridors like Laredo-Bajio, pushing rates gradually higher. For shippers, the implications are immediate and budgetary.

Traffix outlines three planning scenarios for the remainder of 2026: • Base Case (Volumes Stabilize, Capacity Tightens): Spot rates stay well above 2025 levels and contract rates continue rising. Expect freight costs 10-15% higher than 2025, particularly for spot-exposed shipments.

• Tightening Case (Demand + Fuel Accelerate): Manufacturing recovery broadens, inventories stay lean, and diesel remains elevated. Plan for 15-20% cost inflation, with spot-exposed and shorter-haul lanes under the greatest pressure.

• Softer Case (Demand Moderates): Economic growth cools and volumes flatten, but reduced carrier capacity prevents a return to loose-market conditions. Rates stabilize rather than fall meaningfully; budget 7-12% inflation versus 2025. “Current market levels should be treated as a new floor, not a temporary spike,” the report stresses.

For most shippers, a practical budgeting range is low-double-digit transportation inflation versus 2025, with meaningful upside risk in truckload, spot-heavy networks, temperature-controlled freight, and shorter-haul lanes. Fuller’s on-the-ground perspective aligns closely. He notes that shipper reactions have evolved quickly.

“In January and February there was a lot of denial,” he said. “By March and April, transportation managers have convinced their CFO to give them a bigger budget. Fuel helped accelerate that process.” Large CPG and food-and-beverage companies with their own fleets have been slower to accept increases, leveraging purchasing power to resist.

Industrial and machinery shippers, facing expensive customer orders, have been far more open. “In some lanes, we’re up 30%,” Fuller added. “Broadly, 20% is a good number to think about for 2026 and that’s been a big shock for some shippers.” Broader economic and policy factors are also in play.

Tariffs, though quieter in headlines, continue rippling through supply chains. Some companies that built inventory ahead of potential duties are now shifting toward just-in-time strategies or accelerating nearshoring to Mexico, trends that Fuller says are gaining momentum and could further influence domestic trucking demand.

Consumer uncertainty and the possibility of rising unemployment remain watch items, but Fuller sees 2026 as “going to be great, with the asterisk that unemployment could jump and take it off the rails.” Traffix’s recommendations for shippers are pragmatic. First, budget for a higher baseline and treat current rates as the new normal.

Second, lock in capacity strategically: contract rates are still catching up to spot; use bid cycles and mini-bids to secure space in core lanes before further resets. Third, reduce spot-market exposure by shifting toward contracted and diversified carrier networks.

Finally, take a total-cost view, which means balancing transportation, inventory, and import expenses, because low freight rates are no longer the default lever for controlling landed costs. After years of carrier exits and regulatory friction, the market has entered the phase where even modest demand growth produces outsized rate increases.

Spot rates have already surged, contract rates are resetting upward, and linehaul rates have reached multi-year highs independent of fuel. For carriers, the environment offers relief and pricing power not seen since the pandemic peak. For shippers, the message is clear: the soft-market era is over.

Those who adapt quickly by securing capacity, updating budgets, and rethinking network strategy will be best positioned to navigate the tighter, more volatile freight market ahead. The post Traffix expects double-digit rate increases to hold through 2026 appeared first on FreightWaves.